Friday, November 25, 2022

India will grow at a "moderately brisk rate," with inflation expected to fall, according to the Finance Ministry


India to grow at 'moderately brisk rate', inflation to ease: Finance ministry

Delhi, India:A report from the finance ministry said on Thursday that, despite global monetary tightening, India is well-positioned to grow at a "moderately brisk rate" in the coming years due to macroeconomic stability.

In addition, it stated that the arrival of kharif crops will ease inflationary pressures in the coming months, and that job opportunities will increase as business prospects improve.

In addition, the "Monthly Economic Review for October 2022" warned that the US monetary tightening is a "future risk" that could cause stock prices to fall, currencies to weaken, and bond yields to rise, all of which could raise borrowing costs for many governments worldwide.

It stated that fears of a global recession have grown due to the rapid decline in global growth prospects, high inflation, and worsening financial conditions.

The global slowdown's repercussions may have a negative impact on India's export businesses' prospects.However, going forward, economic growth will be fueled by resilient domestic demand, a reenergized investment cycle, strengthened financial system, and structural reforms.

"In reality as we know it where financial fixing has debilitated development possibilities, India shows up very much positioned to develop at a reasonably lively rate before long because of the need it concurred (to) macroeconomic dependability," the report said.

According to the ministry, India's food security concerns have been addressed thus far this year and will continue to receive the government's highest priority.

It stated that "new kharif arrival and rising international commodity prices are also set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months."

After remaining elevated for the majority of the year, India's wholesale and retail price inflation decreased in October, primarily as a result of supply chain disruptions following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February.

Wholesale or WPI inflation was at a 19-month low of 8.39 percent, while retail or CPI inflation was at a three-month low of 6.7%.

Wheat, maize, sunflower seeds, and inputs like fertilizers are among the most important agricultural commodities produced by Russia and Ukraine.

They are the breadbasket of the world, along with other countries that border the Black Sea.

The ministry stated that the year 2022 also brought to the forefront the global food system's vulnerability and interconnectedness to shocks, in addition to an uncertain macroeconomic outlook.

The untimely heatwaves and absence of the southwest monsoon this year had an impact on India's grain supply.However, it added that export restrictions have ensured that the nation's requirements are fully met.

The ministry stated that India's overall employment situation has improved as a result of the recovery in economic activity across all sectors.

In September 2022, EPFO saw double-digit growth in net payroll additions as the economy became more formalized.

"Hiring by firms is likely to witness an improvement in the upcoming quarters driven by a rebound in new business hiring as firms continue to benefit from the lifting of the Covid-19 restrictions and optimism engendered by the vigorous sales volumes experienced during the festive season," the ministry stated. "Hiring by firms is likely to witness an improvement in the upcoming quarters."

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