MUMBAI: The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) has predicted that other domestic carriers, led by IndiGo, will place orders for a total of 1,000 to 1,200 aircraft in the next 24 months. Air India's order for 470 aircraft is expected to be significant for the growth of the Indian aviation industry. According to the report, "India may finally be set to take its place as the global aviation market of the 21st century... it may be on the cusp of a long-awaited and historic change." In the next two years, almost every Indian airline is expected to order more aircraft for fleet replacement and growth, but IndiGo is expected to place the next massive order.
"Prior to Covid, IndiGo had planned to place a significant order of approximately 300 aircraft, but the pandemic forced the delay. "This is now likely to continue and may even be larger than originally anticipated, increasing to approximately 500 aircraft now," stated the recently released CAPA report titled "India: the next global aviation growth engine.
Currently, approximately 700 aircraft are operated by all Indian carriers together. A significantly larger fleet is only operated by some of the global giants; For instance, American Airlines has a fleet of 935 aircraft. However, India's aircraft numbers are expected to significantly increase in the upcoming decade as a result of these massive orders. Therefore, India's preparation for the anticipated growth rate is crucial.
The process of ordering aircraft is arguably relatively simple. Preparing the entire aviation ecosystem to accommodate these aircraft is much more difficult, it stated. The industry should not be caught off guard by the influx of capacity like it was from 2005 to 2008, when aircraft were grounded due to a crew shortage, or from 2014 to 2019, when the entire aviation system was challenged by sustained year-over-year growth of close to 20%.
It stated that "there will be a need to align policy, regulation, availability of skills, knowledge development, infrastructure, including airports and airspace, competition, and consumer interests, with global best practices."
A further obstacle would be a shortage of pilots, engineers, technicians, and air traffic controllers—not to mention technocrats for various civil aviation regulatory bodies and security agencies. The airlines have begun to prepare for the rise. An aviation source stated, "Air India, for example, has begun a project to create a training academy" and is in talks with a variety of potential partners. The delivery schedule for Air India's 470 aircraft will begin this year and end in 2032.