Wednesday, February 1, 2023

The economy will grow by 6-6.8% next year, and the recovery will be complete, according to the Annual Economic Survey

Economy to grow 6-6.8% next year, recovery complete: Annual Economic Survey

 The annual Economic Survey for 2022-23 predicted that the economy would expand by between 6% and 6.8% in 2023 and 2024, with a base rate of 6.5 percent.

See also: Live Updates for Budget 2023 Despite acknowledging that there is a great deal of uncertainty affecting the global economy, which could have an impact on India's growth, the survey ended on a positive note, mirroring the upbeat attitude of the government, which plans to make the recovery under its watch one of the main arguments for the elections in 2024. India, which has weathered the storm better than most and is poised to resume the growth trajectory that existed prior to the Covid crisis, maintained that recovery from the multiple hits that were sustained due to the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and subsequent policy-induced inflationary pressures worldwide was "complete."

According to the survey, the planned return to fiscal discipline would result in a stimulus by lowering interest rates, despite the fact that the Centre had to divert from the path of fiscal consolidation in recent years in order to concentrate on reviving growth.

According to the survey, the rapid vaccination campaign should receive a significant portion of the credit for this. According to the survey, "the single most important reason that brought people out to the streets to re-experience the "bazaar" was the near-universal coverage of vaccinations," adding that contact-based service providers such as restaurants, malls, movie theaters, and tourist destinations were able to run up a thriving business, which contributed to the revival of consumer sentiment.

At a time when the global slowdown was also having an effect on India's exports, private consumption was able to "seamlessly" replace export stimuli as the primary driver of growth. The survey also attributed the government's capital expenditures to "crowding in" private investment, which provided an additional growth engine for this year and future years.

It stated that small and medium-sized businesses were able to create jobs because of government programs like the Emergency Credit-Linked Guarantee Scheme, which helped to cushion the downturn's impact on them.

It emphasized the increased number of jobs, pointing out that they have now reached pre-pandemic levels. It also refuted the criticism that there was a decrease in labor force participation, an increase in formalization, and a rise in manufacturing employment. It also emphasized that the proportion of self-employed people increased while that of regular wage/salaried workers decreased.

In keeping with the recent focus on energy transition in light of the challenge posed by climate change, technology shifts were discussed in the survey; particularly the push for eco-friendly hydrogen.

The document focused on emphasizing that the current administration has done a lot to consolidate the economy and establish a foundation for sustained growth of 7-8% per year in the medium term rather than the usual reform recommendations that are associated with it. It also stated that while product and capital markets had been the primary focus of reforms prior to 2014, the Modi administration's focus has been on making life and doing business easier and on growing businesses. It says that the change has been good. India's potential for growth is likely to increase as a result of reforms, which have resulted in stronger, cleaner, and leaner balance sheets.

The survey's author, the CEA, wanted to emphasize the progress made in the chapters on the social sector and climate change. According to CEA V Anantha Nageswaran's writing, "social welfare is not an afterthought for the government but its leitmotif." The annual document has been used by subsequent CEAs to introduce new ideas for public debate over the years, and the text has frequently been embellished with poetry or literary allusions. Nageswaran decided against wearing such ornaments.

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