Friday, June 9, 2023

Despite losing to KKR, CSK is very assured to place in the top four in the IPL 2023 Playoffs race

Chennai Super Lords could have lost their last match against the Kolkata Knight Riders, yet MS Dhoni and co. are as yet hot top picks for a best four completion in IPL 2023 after the association stage.

The same holds true for the Gujarat Titans, who, if they win their final home game of the league stage against Sunrisers Hyderabad on Monday, could secure their place in the playoffs.

With nine matches remaining in the league stage of IPL 2023, there are currently 512 possible outcomes. TOI takes a gander at every one of these conceivable outcomes to compute the possibilities of individual groups coming to the end of the season games. There are currently four teams with a nearly two-thirds chance of making the playoffs: two are almost certain, one is a strong favorite, and one is not. DC is now without a doubt out of the play-offs, but the others are still in the running, with SRH just about there.

Shankar Raghuraman of TOI does the math to figure out where each team stands as of Monday, May 15 morning:

1. In terms of points, GT are already certain to finish in one of the top three spots. They can only finish tied for third place. Their likelihood of being the sole leader has increased to 63.1 percent. Nonetheless, it is still hypothetically conceivable that they pass up NRR in light of the fact that they can in any case wind up in a bind with upto three different groups for the third spot yet that is only a 1.6% opportunity

2. Even though they lost on Sunday, CSK still have a 94.9 percent chance of finishing in the top four on points, whether they finish alone or together.

3. MI are currently in third place, and their probability of finishing in the top four based on points has increased to 89.1%, though this does not take into account situations in which they are tied for fourth.

4. In fourth spot presently, LSG have a close to 66% possibility (65.2% to be exact) of making the main four. Again, this includes situations in which they are only joint fourth, some of which involve more than one team.

5. After the victory on Sunday, RCB moved up to fifth place, increasing their chances of finishing in the top four by 43.8%. However, this does not take into account situations in which teams are tied on points for fourth place.

6. At present in 6th spot after Sunday's misfortune, RR's possibilities causing the best four to have dove to 18.8%. If they win their remaining game and other outcomes hold, they can only finish tied for fourth.

7. With an extra game in hand, PBKS' chances of finishing in the top four on points are 43.8% better than those of RR, which is higher up on the points table than PBKS.

8. With Sunday's victory, KKR moved up to seventh place, but they can't finish higher than fourth with one to five other teams. At the moment, their chances of achieving that are 21.1%.

9. Similar to KKR, SRH can, at best, tie for fourth on points, but their chances of doing so are just 7%.

10. DC has officially lost its bid for the playoffs. They turned into the principal group to be disposed of following Saturday's misfortune to PBKS.

How we work out these probabilities:

We took a gander at each of the 512 potential blends of results with 9 matches remaining. We assumed that both teams had equal chances of winning any given match. The number of combinations that place each team among the top four in terms of points is then examined. That is the probability number for us. For instance, only 36 of the 512 possible outcome combinations result in SRH finishing in the top four on points. That amounts to a chance of 7% of reaching the top four. Net run rates and No Results are not taken into account by us because it is impossible to predict them in advance.

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