Researchers estimate that only 100–500 mature Timor green pigeons remain across the species’ range, with the real number possibly near the lower end of that estimate. Most of the remaining population is thought to be in Timor-Leste, particularly in the forests of Lautem municipality.
The conclusion comes from an open-access study published in the journal Oryx. Its authors combined more than 1,400 field days between 2002 and 2025 with historical records and observations from other researchers and birdwatchers. The paper was published online on 5 May 2026 and received renewed attention through Mongabay’s detailed reporting on 13 August.
The estimate is not a precise census. Important forest areas remain under-surveyed, and some birds may persist outside known sites. Even with those limits, the long decline in sightings has led researchers to conclude that the species is in serious danger.
What the survey record shows
Sightings have shifted towards Timor-Leste
The study compiled 96 records from 1969 to 2025. Seventy-four were from Timor-Leste, including 69 from Lautem. Before 2000, most known records came from Indonesian West Timor. Since then, observations have become heavily concentrated in Timor-Leste.
Researchers found no West Timor record after 2005 despite extensive later survey effort. On the Indonesian islands of Rote and Semau, observations have also been extremely scarce.
Nino Konis Santana National Park in Lautem now holds what the researchers consider the largest remaining population. Even there, birds appear concentrated in remote lowland forests rather than spread across the park.
Large flocks have become rare
Timor green pigeons gather around fruiting trees, which once produced records of much larger flocks. Since 2000, only eight records documented at least 10 birds. The last newly recorded site with more than 20 birds was found in October 2005.
The researchers acknowledge important gaps. Some remote forests in Lautem and parts of Manatuto and Manufahi have not received enough recent survey work. Data on hunting pressure are also limited. However, years of weak detection despite substantial field effort leave little evidence for assuming that large hidden populations remain.
Why the bird is especially vulnerable
The Timor green pigeon is a fruit-eating forest bird found only on Timor and nearby islands. The Oryx researchers identify severe hunting pressure and forest conversion as the main forces behind its decline.
The bird’s feeding behaviour can increase the risk. Groups gather in fruiting trees, and other birds may remain in the canopy after one is shot. That can expose much of a flock during a single hunting event.
Forest loss reduces the number of safe feeding and resting areas at the same time. Protected status alone has not removed the danger. Although 82% of the records examined by the study came from protected areas, the researchers say those areas often lack the funding and staff needed for effective management.
The study does not frame local communities only as a source of pressure. Its authors recommend working with hunters to understand where and how hunting occurs, explain wildlife protections and involve people with strong knowledge of the landscape in surveys and conservation. They argue that community-based protection will be essential in Lautem.
Its formal status has not changed yet
The Timor green pigeon remains listed as Endangered on the IUCN Red List. It has held that category since 2000.
The new study recommends moving the species to Critically Endangered under criterion C2a(ii). That recommendation reflects evidence of a very small and declining mature population, with most remaining birds concentrated in one subpopulation.
Following its 2026 assessment process, BirdLife International recommended the same Critically Endangered category. BirdLife said the recommendation would be put forward to IUCN, with final 2026 Red List categories expected in November after further checks.
Until IUCN publishes that update, describing the change as a completed reclassification would be incorrect.
What conservation could do next
The researchers recommend systematic surveys in the Vero Valley and Ira-Caupiti area, followed by monitoring every three to five years. They also call for new work in Natarbora and across remote parts of Manatuto and Manufahi.
In Indonesia, priorities include surveys around Mount Timau, northern Rote and the remaining forests of Semau. The paper also calls for species action plans in both Indonesia and Timor-Leste.
Those steps would improve the population estimate, identify overlooked groups and show whether protection is working. Community participation is central to the proposal, including conversations with hunters, conservation awareness and stronger understanding of wildlife law.
New records may still be found, so the species’ exact number remains uncertain. The available evidence nevertheless suggests that waiting for a perfect count would carry its own risk. The immediate task is to locate the remaining birds, reduce hunting pressure and give local conservation partners the support needed to keep the population from shrinking further.
